Friday, November 25, 2011

Insider Information

Good post by Laban about what Germany will do about the Eurozone crisis (and how to profit from it). The four options seem about right to me:
a) print ?
b) bail out Southern Europe ?
c) neither - at which point defaults start, absent
d) Euro-area fiscal union - with Germany running the show hands-on, because while they may trust the Irish, Dutch and Finns, they can't trust the Greeks or the Italians, and maybe even the French ?
The political committment to the Euro is sufficiently strong that I can't see (c) being allowed to happen as it would unravel the whole thing.

In the short run I'd say (b) leading to (d) in the long term.


A K Haart said...

Do you mean (b) leading to (d) ?

Ross said...

Er yes. I'll correct it now.

James Higham said...

We need Bomber Harris.

Laban said...

I'm just not sure the Germans actually WANT to run Europe - they'd just like the other Europeans to be more like the Germans - which is not very likely.

Ross said...

No I don't think Germany wants to rule Europe. They have invested so much money and emotion into the EU as a means of NOT dominating the continent.

It's an accident that the opposite has happened.