Liberalism Versus Democracy

The protests in Egypt as well as Turkey are a symptom of a wider struggle between the modernism and reactionary Islamism. Both Morsi and Erdogan are pushing an authoritarian Islamic agenda despite the objections of more liberal factions in society.

However both of them won free and contested elections in order to obtain power. They have democratic mandates. There is a similar clash between authoritarian populists and a liberal middle class in other countries in Thailand and Russia.

In other words liberalism and democracy are in direct opposition rather than being bedfellows as is widely assumed. In the west we have developed a system of more or less pluralistic, liberal democracy but we only got here hundreds of years of a slowly widening franchise-. If we had enjoyed full democracy from the 17th Century onwards when the country was populated by superstitious peasants then we probably would not have that.

The Argument Against Egyptian Democracy In Brief

Egypt shouldn’t be allowed democracy because it will be bad for Israel whom we must support as it is the only democracy in the Middle East.

Democracy & Islam.

There seems to be a widespread opinion that the only viable alternative to the Egyptian regime is the Muslim Brotherhood* and that therefore to support the protesters on the streets of Cairo is to support an Islamist theocracy. There is of course a danger that any broad based revolution will be overtaken by the most vile and fanatical elements within it- the French, Russian and Iranian revolutions all provide examples of that.

However while the danger shouldn't be overlooked the idea that either the Islamists are the inevitable victors in a democratic Muslim majority state isn't true. Over the course of almost a hundred elections in Muslim countries over the last few decades Islamic parties** have fared abysmally with only two clear wins- Algeria in 1991 and the Palestinian Authority in 2006. Both of these victories occured when the regimes had previously extinguished most other opposition groups.

A democratic Egypt is a much better bulwark against fundamentalists than a pro Western dictatorship.

* Glenn Beck is being pin pointed as being responsible for popularising that idea. Whilst Beck isn't Hitler he isn't a reliable figure for interpreting current events either.

** Of course even non Islamist parties are likely to believe things that are extreme and support brutal punishments for criminals, punishments for apostasy and hatred of Israel. However so do the tame dictators too so there is no deterioration in the situation really.

The Extremists Won't Win, But The Moderates Are Pretty Extreme

This Pew survey from last year gives an indication of where public opinion in Egypt stands. It stands in the corner of the room marked "crazy"- with a large majority in favour of the public concerned about the rise of Islamic extremist but an equally large majority in favour of stoning for adultery and flogging for petty crimes.

So whilst the religious extremists probably won't take sole of Egypt, even the moderates & liberals aren't going tp be the Egyptian equivalents of Christopher Hitchens and will be likely to throw the Islamists a few bones.

It Must Be Bad

This is a turn up:

US, Turkey, Iraq, China urge citizens to leave Egypt

Egypt is too dangerous for Iraqis?

Egypt

I don't think the Egyptian regime will fall any time soon, all the vested interests who control Egypt have too much to lose if Mubarek is toppled. As Egypt is home one of the busiest shipping routes in the world this matters a great deal.

Unless you know what would take it's place a revolution is a very big gamble for all concerned. Still it is depressing to see a resurgence of the idea that the West should continue to back the likes of Egypt because other wise the Islamists will take over.

It is similar to the misguided policy of the Cold War to cooperate with strongmen with appalling human rights records because they proclaimed themselves to be anti-communist- usually opportunistically. The policy of backing nutters like Joseph Savimbi or General Suharto did more to sully our image than every Marxist tract ever written.

There isn't much evidence that the Islamists are the ones poised to take advantage of the void left by Mubarek, as the Economist's Lexington points out there is usually a ceiling of about 20% in terms of support for Islamists in Muslim countries.The protesters aren't demanding a Caliphate and even the usual "Death to Israel" banners aren't widespread. Whilst we shouldn't openly work against the Egyptian government, there is little to be gained from propping them up either.

1.5 Billion Muslims Know Who He Is*

And they think he's a twat as well.

* A reference to his boast on Celebrity Big Brother a few years ago.