The Cowards Have Beaten The Idiots

Or to put it another way, Scotland voted "No" to independence. So now we are all back to normal as a United Kingdom with a broken constitution.

Hooray!

Scotland

It is my hope that Scotland votes to keep Britain together next week, partly for emotional reasons- I'm half Scottish and much of my family is from there and I feel a sense of nationhood that doesn't stop at Berwick. It also seems to me that Britain is a stronger and more formidable country than merely England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Having said that I do think the 'No' campaign are wrong to concede nationalist demands on control of the welfare system in North Britain. Single currency areas like the UK require transfer payments from rich to poor areas in order to compensate for poor areas being unable to devalue their currency to compete. One of the quickest ways that an economically hard hit region to receive transfer payments is through the welfare system.

Paul Krugman (who despite his hyper partisanship is a renowned economist) explains the process with a comparison of how Spain and Florida were affected by the global recession here. Essentially when Florida's economy crashed, it automatically received more money from Washington whereas Spain did not automatically receive extra cash from Brussels leading to a much weaker fiscal position- because despite currency union Germany isn't willing to fund Spain's welfare system.

If Scotland manages it's own welfare system some of the automatic stabilisers won't work in the case of a shock to Scotland's economy.

More devolution is inevitable but welfare should remain substantially a UK wide issue.

Darling You Were Wonderful!

Alistair Darling seems to have come out on top in the Scottish independence debate against Alec Salmond. Back in 2010 during the Labour leadership contest I wrote:

Who should have stood: Alastair Darling, he is a much more substantive figure than any of the candidates. The economic woes were largely the result of his predecessor as Chancellor and he appears to be an honourable individual (resisted pressure from Brown & Balls to cook the books according to Mandleson's memoirs) apart from a bit of flipping. 

Now, as well as his existing strengths he would be able to portray himself as the saviour of the Union. I suspect that if he were the Labour leader they'd currently be heading for government. Labour supporters must be pulling their hair out when they see how effective Darling can be compared to Ed Miliband.

Priorities

Just listening to report on the merger of Scottish police forces into the awfully named "Police Scotland". The BBC reporter said "Priorities for the new force include promoting more women and reducing violent crime".

Well I'm glad that reducing crime is up there I suppose...

Up In Scotland Till Tuesday

Dogs That Don't Bark

Also on the riots, Alec Salmond was criticised for insisting that the riots weren't UK riots, but English riots.

The criticism is misplaced, Salmond is perfectly correct. The rioting did not spread north of the border, nor did previous bouts of riots such as those in the early 1980s.

In fact rioting in Scotland seems to be very rare, whilst I am no expert I cannot think of any in the 20th or 21st centuries. This is surprising because the most widespread explanations of riots apply at least as much to Glasgow as to London and Birmingham- poverty, ethnic division, haves and have nots, general level of violence- but no riots occurred.

So why have their been no riots in Scotland either this year or much at all in the last century?

Scottish Independence Is More Likely Than Not

The SNP have had a sensational result in Scotland winning an overall majority in a parliament designed to prevent anyone winning an overall majority. Labour's rout has been incredible and the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have gone backwards from an already weak position.

The polls suggest independence is very much a minority position within Scotland-, especially after the financial crisis hurt small European nations like Iceland & Ireland- so the SNP might like to avoid the issue for now. However with an overall majority Alex Salmond will have to hold some kind of referendum or admit that they are abandoning the idea.

However while independence isn't popular yet, a campaign will be headed by Salmond who has demonstrated that he is by far the best campaigner in Scottish politics. It will also be opposed by relatively unpopular Conservative and Liberal Democratic parties and a Labour party led by the hapless Ed Miliband. There is a real opportunity for the Nats to win independence.

Even if independence is a bridge too far for Scotland right now, the SNP would surely win any referendum on anything short of independence such as more powers for Holyrood- a situation which would put more pressure on the Union in the long term.


The reason for the SNP's success is surely at least in part because it is the one party whose focus is purely on Scotland- Labour's best politicians (a relative term) go to Westminster hence their campaign was largely directed against the irrelevant Conservative Party, the Scottish Tories have flat lined in the polls for the best part of two decades and the Scottish Lib Dems have no real reason to exist as a 3rd party already does very well.

Meanwhile the SNP march on.

It's That Bad!

How terrible must the athlete's village in Delhi be that the Scottish team were considering not going? I mean if a country that contains Dundee thinks it might be verging on the unlivable then we should take their word for it.

Blue Scotland?

This is a turn up:

Tory optimism that they are on course to win more seats in Scotland than the SNP in this year’s General Election was strengthened yesterday by a new opinion poll which showed them neck-and-neck with the Nationalists.

The poll for The Scottish Sun put both parties at 21 per cent support — far behind Labour on 37 per cent but well ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 15 per cent.

I'd pretty much assumed that the Conservatives were dead in Scotland with both Labour and the SNP miles ahead. Labour are indeed miles ahead but the SNP are in trouble. It suggests that the anti-incumbency vote is being directed against the Scottish executive rather than the British government.

Alec Salmond has always struck me as a supremely gifted opposition politician but with no clear ideas of his own, so it doesn't surprise me that being in power has been bad for the nats under him.

STFU STUC*

Nick M says most of what needs to be said about the Scottish Trades Union Congress's request for people attending the Celtic versus Hapoel Tel Aviv football match to "show solidarity" with the Palestinians. It is a disgraceful attempt to insert politics and sectarianism into sport. The STUC's secretary general, Dave Moxham, explains their demand with this:

“This December marks the one year anniversary of the Israeli invasion of Gaza in which 1,400 men, women and children were killed in an act described by the United Nations as ‘indicating serious violations of international human rights’ and ‘amounting to war crimes, and possibly crimes against humanity’.

Oddly enough Celtic played Dynamo Moscow in August, which marked the one year anniversary of the Russia invasion of Georgia, yet I don't seem to be able to find the STUC's calls for solidarity from back then. I also don't seem to be able to find the STUC calling for similar displays when teams from Turkey or the former Yugoslavia have played in Scotland, despite the conflicts that have beset them.

Odd that.


* Headline shamelessly stolen from a comment by 'Kevin B' in the same post that I linked to at the beginning of the article.

Not Dead Yet.

Labour have done extremely well in the Glasgow North East bye election. Labour and Brown in particular are more popular in Scotland than in England and Wales but that probably isn't the main factor behind this win. What is probably more important is that in Scotland the SNP are in power so Labour benefit from being a vehicle for opposition to the status quo, if that is the case then they will probably make some kind of recovery in the UK as a whole once they are removed from government next year.

Trumping Property Rights

Since when does a bewigged* billionaire have the right to take your property to help make himself even richer?

Donald Trump has won another crucial victory in his bid to build the "world's greatest golf course" after planners approved his plans to expand the £1bn project onto land which is owned by his fiercest opponents.

The billionaire property developer has been allowed to exploit a quirk of Scottish planning law after Aberdeenshire council gave him outline permission to develop six plots of land he does not yet own, including the 25-acre property owned by Michael Forbes, his most famous critic.

The decision immediately provoked a furious row, with affected landowners promising to take legal action against the council to prevent it taking the next step – trying to seize their land using compulsory purchase powers.

Compulsory purchase powers should only be available in very rare circumstances where essential public services have an absolute need for a particular piece of land- for example building a reservoir may be a justifiable use of compulsory purchase orders because there would be no way that one particular property could be spared whilst flooding the surrounding area and water supply is a public good. A golf course is no justification for simply taking someone's property without consent.

There is something unseemly about fawning over people and granting them special privileges just because they are rich (see also the treatment of Sir Allen Stanford by the ECB for another recent example).

Most Scottish politicians have a reflexively anti-capitalist instinct but they probably believe that by granting special dispensations to big business they are showing how investor friendly they really are. Supporting economic development isn't about favouring the interests of developers over those of other parties but about providing clear rules that apply to everyone and property rights that can be defended in a court of law, even against the likes of Donald Trump.

* Actually it probably isn't a wig, just a combover. No one would buy a wig that bad.

{via Alex Massie}

Shock- Trade Body Supports Stifling Competition!

The Scottish Executive supports a minimum price for alcohol:

A spokesman for the SNP administration said: “The UK’s four Chief Medical Officers all back minimum pricing, and the BMA, Royal College of Nursing, the police, the British Liver Trust, and indeed the licensed trade association, all support the Scottish government’s proposals

The 'licensed trade association' is an organisation which (a) should really be capitalised and (b) is made up of " Hotels, Public Houses, Restaurants, Refreshment premises, Entertainment premises and also Off-sales premises.". In other words all bodies which compete against supermarkets and who would benefit if a minimum price was established to prevent the large supermarkets undercutting them.

They are quite open about existing for the benefit of their members so it is a bit odd for the Scottish executive to refer to them as backing a proposal designed to boost public health and reduce public order offences when that is clearly not something that has anything to do with them.

Mercy To The Guilty Is Cruelty To The Innocent.

As the fall out from the decision to release Megrahi continues- with President Obama and FBI Director Robert Mueller both making unusually strong criticisms of the decision by the SNP government- I thought this quote Adam Smith, one of Scotland's greatest thinkers (even greater than Kenny MacAskill) explains why compassion to someone convicted of Megrahi's crimes is not something that one should base decisions upon:

Such is the account commonly given of our approbation of the punishment of injustice. And so far this account is undoubtedly true, that we frequently have occasion to confirm our natural sense of the propriety and fitness of punishment, by reflecting how necessary it is for preserving the order of society. When the guilty is about to suffer that just retaliation, which the natural indignation of mankind tells them is due to his crimes; when the insolence of his injustice is broken and humbled by the terror of his approaching punishment; when he ceases to be an object of fear, with the generous and humane he begins to be an object of pity. The thought of what he is about to suffer extinguishes their resentment for the sufferings of others to which he has given occasion. They are disposed to pardon and forgive him, and to save him from that punishment, which in all their cool hours they had considered as the retribution due to such crimes. Here, therefore, they have occasion to call to their assistance the consideration of the general interest of society. They counterbalance the impulse of this weak and partial humanity by the dictates of a humanity that is more generous and comprehensive. They reflect that mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the innocent, and oppose to the emotions of compassion which they feel for a particular person, a more enlarged compassion which they feel for mankind.

{Full quote via- The American Thinker- although I already knew the "Mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the innocent" and was googling it when I found the full passage. }

Misplaced Compassion.

The decision of the Scottish government to release the man convicted of the Lockerbie bomb is disturbing at least if their reasons are truthful. The SNP's justice minister, Kenny MacAskill, claims that Megrahi has been released on compassionate grounds, but if a man responsible for the murder of 270 people is eligible for release on compassionate grounds then how can they possibly justify not releasing anyone on compassionate grounds after this?

If the real motivation for his release is that they believe Megrahi is innocent- or at least that there is insufficient evidence for his guilt- then they should be open about saying so because that at least doesn't create a precedent that would allow anyone to walk out of prison regardless of the severity of their crimes.

Quote Of The Day.

Kevin McKenna on the workings of the Banning Chamber a.k.a. the Numptydrome* a.k.a. the Scottish Parliament:

After that, it became a feeding frenzy as MSPs and councillors realised how easy it was to ban things. Soon there was a bill to ban fur farming. And only after the legislation was passed was it discovered that, er ... there were no fur farms in Scotland.

* I didn't coin the term "Numptydrome" but I can't recall where I saw it so can't credit the creator.

Great New Idea: Prosecute Good Parents.

If there were two restaurants, one which provided a very good service at a reasonable price and one which sold rotting food at exorbitant rates you would expect everyone to go to the first one, regardless of whether it was their nearest one. If that led to increased demand then the good restaurant could expand or they could use the additional money they had to take over the failing outlet.

If on the other hand we nationalised restaurants then we would start prosecuting the diners for preferring good service:

A council is threatening to prosecute parents who fraudulently try to enrol their children in its schools.

East Renfrewshire is demanding greater proof of identity after discovering at least 20 attempts by people from outside the area in the past year.

Schools are more important than restaurants but the attitude seems to be that if you want your child to learn how to read or write you should move to a more upmarket catchment area.

McNumpties.

Donald Trump is a ludicrous man in a wig. That said he is also filthy rich and presumably knows a bit about making money. Which is why it seems extraordinary that he has had to fight tooth and nail for the privilege of being allowed to invest £1 Billion to build a Scottish golf complex. When face with a choice between a guarenteed £1 Billion and the prospect of tourism for decades to come on one hand and a possibility that some sand dunes might be disturbedon the other they initially chose to protect the dunes!

This demonstrates the deleterious effects of letting politicians and pressure groups decide on investment priorities when they have nothing personally at stake in the investment.

It's A Mystery To Me As Well.

A Scottish Muslim group is outraged and bewildered because they believe, rightly or wrongly, that Muslims are being targetted excessively by police at Glasgow Airport, which was the location of an unsuccessful terrorist attack by an Islamist group less than 18 month ago.

They should really blame Al Qaeda for not having diversity policies that would allow wannabe terrorists of all faith traditions achieve occupational success.

Crime & No Punishment.

I can see the purpose of open prisons, if certain inmates who aren't dangerous and are content to serve their time can be held with a minimum of security then it is a good way to save money. Obviously they should not be used for prisoners with a known history of violence and absconding. Well it's obvious to me and any sentient being I've ever met, but not to the custodians of our criminal justice system:

Robert Foye, 29, beat and restrained his 16-year-old victim before raping her after being allowed out of Castle Huntly open prison last year to attend an Alcoholics Anonymous meeting, in spite of a history of flouting prison discipline and escaping.

.......

Foye was convicted in 2002 of the attempted murder of a police officer and sentenced to nine and a half years. Three years later he in was in the open prison. Lady Smith was told two police forces were trying to track him down last August after he failed to return from his day out.

The court was told yesterday that Foye had spent only two months outside prison since 1996, having notched up 25 convictions as an adult.

They decided that being in an open prison didn't give him enough opportunity to escape so they sent him out on day trips! There is no mention in the article of who was responsible for letting a dangerous criminal out and I doubt those responsible for enabling him to rape the girl will suffer any consequences whatsoever.

Two minor points that occur to me are, if someone is in prison shouldn't he be unable to get any alcohol, thus rendering the AA meetings unnecessary? Secondly shouldn't attempted police killers be serving more than nine and a half years, which for a prisoner more disciplined than Foye means about 4 or 5 years?