That Critical Endorsement.

With the American election looking like it is on a knife edge, it is clear that the voters are waiting on the thoughtful utterances of some random foreigner before making a final decision.

The candidate I am probably closest to is the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson, but would only vote for him if I lived in a state where my vote doesn't matter. So on balance I want Romney to win.

He's not perfect and my endorsement depends largely on the assumption that some of his worse policies are merely campaign fodder not to be taken seriously- like his rhetoric on trade with China.

But he does have a track record of competence and that is the most important aspect of the job.

Also the Obama administration is not one that deserves reelection- the vast increase in spending even above the levels of the profligate Bush administration is dangerous for the world economy and although it's not my primary concern as a foreigner his domestic policies on things like education and welfare reform are rather destructive.

End Nato?

I see Ron Paul is running away with the Fun Online Poll.

Since most voters are British and the most significant aspect of a Ron Paul presidency for Britain would be the end of NATO and similar alliances- does this mean that people think NATO should be disbanded.

Arbitrary List Of The Day- Best To Worst Republican Candidates For President.

Still active candidates in bold:

1. Gary Johnson (former governor of New Mexico)
2. Mitt Romney (former governor of Massachussetts)
3. Jon Huntsman (former governor of Utah)
4. Tim Pawlenty (former governor of Minnesota)
5. Rick Perry (governor of Texas)
6. Ron Paul (Texas congressman)
7. Herman Cain (Businessman)
8. Rick Santorum (former senator for Pennsylvania)
9. Michelle Bachmann (Minnesota congresswoman)
10. Newt Gingrich (former speaker of the house)

Prediction USA 2012

Back in 2008 I correctly predicted the outcomes of the Republican and Democratic primaries and the general election. In fairness my prediction of the British election was way off but like most people I am psychologically inclined to attribute my successes to talent and failures to bad luck.

The Republican Primary is much easier to predict this year simply because only one first class candidate has decided to put himself forward- Mitt Romney. There were other candidates who could have won, like Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, but they didn't run. Rick Perry should have put up a more impressive challenge than he did but that did not materialise.

Earlier this year I also predicted that Barack Obama would win a 2nd term, because of the weakness of the Republican candidates. However given how efficiently Mitt Romney's campaign has gone so far- with no sign of being perturbed by the succession of great right hopes who have come and gone- I now think he can overcome his history of ridiculous flip flopping to win against Obama.

So my final prediction is that Mitt Romney will be the president elect this time next year.

On The Republican Nomination

The Iowa straw poll did it's job of whittling down the field of candidates for the Republican nomination, with only Michelle Bachman, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney & Rick Perry likely to pick up serious numbers of delegates once voting begins in the primary process.

I agree with most mainstream pundits that only Romney and Perry can win the nomination. Both have lovely hair which is a key attribute in a presidential candidate. My preference is Romney because he is a highly effective leader in both government and business- and he can win the votes of moderates and even disgruntled liberals. Also Perry's record of cronyism and lack of concern about executing innocent people are disturbing.

For the last two years Romney's strategy has been to run as the candidate of economic competence for a general election that would be about the dismal record on jobs and growth by the Obama administration. Against the presumed candidates up until now- Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty, Huntsman, Gingrich etc- he could reasonably claim to be far and away the most plausible man to turn around the US economy.

Rick Perry is the one candidate who Romney cannot play the economy card against with much success for the simple reason that Texas has an incredibly successful economy compared to the rest of the United States. There is a question of how much that has to do with Perry personally or how much he could apply Texan policies to the USA as a whole but politics is partly about being in the right place to take credit for good things that happen. He is also a better campaigner than Romney.

However I am going to predict a Romney win because:

• Bachman will take more votes from Perry.
• Romney is a more attractive candidate outside the South, support for him will be strong in the North East of course but also in the Mormon heavy Western states around Utah and the Mid West where his father was a successful governor.
• He has a campaign network in place from 2008 and will probably out organise Perry.
• The Republicans tend to nominate from the more moderate wing of the party.

It is a much more intriguing campaign than it looked a few months ago when Donald Trump & Herman Cain were the flavours of the month.

Obama Will Be A Two Term President

This poll of how Obama fares against against the leading Republican candidates- Romney, Palin, Huckabee & Gingrich- for the 2012 nomination is a bracing reality check to those who want to see the back of Obama. Not only does he still lead in all of the states that flipped from Bush in 04 to Obama in 08, against 3 of the 4 candidates he increases his lead- and this is in the middle of his term when little attention is being paid to his opponents and the economy remains dire.

This isn't due to Obama's brilliance, as the mid terms showed he is not wildly popular, but due to the weakness of the field. The strongest GOP candidate is Mitt Romney but his impressive track record in government and business is marred by his ridiculous flip flopping that reveal someone with few actual principles and will reduce him to a laughing stock in an election campaign. Palin has made no effort whatsoever to improve her standing with swing voters in the two years since her Vice Presidential candidacy. Gingrich's unedifying personal life and his track record of imploding will haunt his campaign. As for Huckabee, he has the right personality to be president but his actual policies are abysmal and often quite extreme.

There are other prominent Republicans who could beat Obama, but the nomination will almost certainly come down to one of those four because if someone hasn't carved themselves a niche among the GOP primary electorate by now then they probably won't be able to do it before 2012- so out go dull generic candidates like Tim Pawlenty, John Thune and the much hyped Jon Huntsman. Three candidates might have the profile to generate the enthusiasm and the money to run a successful campaign- Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush- but they have all ruled out running.

So at the moment Obama looks like a very good bet for re-election.