So How's That Reset Coming Along?

I'm beginning to suspect that the "reset " the Obama administration offered to Putin in 2009 might not be going so well. In this Obama's delusion was that the poor relations between Russia and the USA was due to something Bush had done because he looks at the world entirely through the prism of US domestic politics.

The real cause is that the Putin's Russia seems unable to have civil relations as equals with it's neighbours and instead tries to dominate, intimidate and control them. The USA is not unusual in being targeted by Russia, even neutral Sweden gets the threatening treatment.

It is the geo-political equivalent of the retarded kid whose been held back a couple of years and can't socialise with his class mates but can beat them up. Although even an actual retarded kid would be hard pressed to have handled the Ukrainian situation less effectively than Putin.

That Critical Endorsement.

With the American election looking like it is on a knife edge, it is clear that the voters are waiting on the thoughtful utterances of some random foreigner before making a final decision.

The candidate I am probably closest to is the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson, but would only vote for him if I lived in a state where my vote doesn't matter. So on balance I want Romney to win.

He's not perfect and my endorsement depends largely on the assumption that some of his worse policies are merely campaign fodder not to be taken seriously- like his rhetoric on trade with China.

But he does have a track record of competence and that is the most important aspect of the job.

Also the Obama administration is not one that deserves reelection- the vast increase in spending even above the levels of the profligate Bush administration is dangerous for the world economy and although it's not my primary concern as a foreigner his domestic policies on things like education and welfare reform are rather destructive.

Prediction USA 2012

Back in 2008 I correctly predicted the outcomes of the Republican and Democratic primaries and the general election. In fairness my prediction of the British election was way off but like most people I am psychologically inclined to attribute my successes to talent and failures to bad luck.

The Republican Primary is much easier to predict this year simply because only one first class candidate has decided to put himself forward- Mitt Romney. There were other candidates who could have won, like Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, but they didn't run. Rick Perry should have put up a more impressive challenge than he did but that did not materialise.

Earlier this year I also predicted that Barack Obama would win a 2nd term, because of the weakness of the Republican candidates. However given how efficiently Mitt Romney's campaign has gone so far- with no sign of being perturbed by the succession of great right hopes who have come and gone- I now think he can overcome his history of ridiculous flip flopping to win against Obama.

So my final prediction is that Mitt Romney will be the president elect this time next year.

Quote Of The Day

Kinky Friedman, musician and former opponent of Rick Perry, issues an endorsement of the man who beat him to the Texas governorship:

Obama has done for the economy what pantyhose did for foreplay.

The Debt Ceiling.

The big argumemt over the debt ceiling rumbles on in Washington. Failing to raise it would be a disaster because cuts deep enough not to exceed the ceiling would have to be massive and immediate. While spending does need to come down cutting 40% in one year is not possible without damaging the economy more.

Anyway the deal that Obama and Boehner eventually come up with is going to involve spending cuts and once again demonstrates that the most effective combination for fiscal responsibility is a Democratic president and a Republican congress- the combination that produced welfare reform in the 990s for example.

With a Republican president a Republican congress will happily forget any notion of limited government and support massive increases in healthcare entitlements, military expenditure and education spending. Equally a Democratic president with a congress of his own party will spend like Charlie Sheen in a brothel.

So while Obama doesn't like being forced to offer cuts, he will in a few years be claiming credit for them as Clinton does for the policies forced on him in the 1990s which led to higher growth.

???? World peace

Tell me if I am missing a step here:

1.  Colonel Gadaffi has WMD programme. Is a bastard to Libyan people.
2. Colonel Gadaffi agrees to disband WMD programme. Remains a bastard to Libyan people.
3. NATO commits itself to regime change because Colonel Gadaffi is a bastard to Libyan people.
4. We ask Iran, Pakistan, North Korea & Syria who are all bastards to their own people to give up their WMDs.
5. ????
6. World Peace

Whilst I do see why protecting Benghazi from a massacre is a worthwhile objective extending the mission to depose Gadaffi- an admittedly disgusting creature- sends out a message to all of the other states in the international rogues' gallery- "Don't give up your WMDs under any circumstances or you will be annihilated".

Obama Will Be A Two Term President

This poll of how Obama fares against against the leading Republican candidates- Romney, Palin, Huckabee & Gingrich- for the 2012 nomination is a bracing reality check to those who want to see the back of Obama. Not only does he still lead in all of the states that flipped from Bush in 04 to Obama in 08, against 3 of the 4 candidates he increases his lead- and this is in the middle of his term when little attention is being paid to his opponents and the economy remains dire.

This isn't due to Obama's brilliance, as the mid terms showed he is not wildly popular, but due to the weakness of the field. The strongest GOP candidate is Mitt Romney but his impressive track record in government and business is marred by his ridiculous flip flopping that reveal someone with few actual principles and will reduce him to a laughing stock in an election campaign. Palin has made no effort whatsoever to improve her standing with swing voters in the two years since her Vice Presidential candidacy. Gingrich's unedifying personal life and his track record of imploding will haunt his campaign. As for Huckabee, he has the right personality to be president but his actual policies are abysmal and often quite extreme.

There are other prominent Republicans who could beat Obama, but the nomination will almost certainly come down to one of those four because if someone hasn't carved themselves a niche among the GOP primary electorate by now then they probably won't be able to do it before 2012- so out go dull generic candidates like Tim Pawlenty, John Thune and the much hyped Jon Huntsman. Three candidates might have the profile to generate the enthusiasm and the money to run a successful campaign- Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush- but they have all ruled out running.

So at the moment Obama looks like a very good bet for re-election.

Unreciprocated Love

Peter Hitchens writes about anti-British sentiment in the USA something I've written about before albeit more tongue in cheek than Hitchens' column, he even quotes the same buffoonish Chicago mayor of the 1920s that I mentioned- Bill Thompson.

Of course the fact that we both have to cite a figure from the 1920s to bolster the case for US anglophobia does suggest that current examples are thin on the ground despite President Obama's posturing over the oil spill.

Whilst the political posturing of US politicians such as President Obama over the BP oil leak is undignified the fact remains that they are attacking BP because BP is in the wrong not because it is British.

However whilst the President probably has nothing against us it, his rather undiplomatic blundering does illustrate another point- he isn't much interested in the world outside the United States. For all the talk of how his background meant that he would be exceptionally astute in dealing with the outside world, his outlook is intensely insular. There is nothing in the way he sees the world that consists of anything beyond the standard positions of the company he has mixed in for his adult life. To the extent he has any interest in the outside world it extends only to the impact it has on US domestic politics.

He's Just Not That Into You.

Last January I wrote a not entirely serious post about whether Obama was a closet Anglophobe. When you look at what has happened since then- returning the bust of Winston Churchill, giving Gordon Brown those somewhat insulting presents, disavowing the "special relationship" and now refusing to back Britain's position in the Falklands- I think it's fair to say that he certainly is not an Anglophile.

There is no reason why a foreign head of state should favour us over other countries of course (except for being allies of the US), but his seeming indifference to this country ought to make some of the Obama worshippers over here pause for thought. There is nothing more cringe inducing than seeing a political man crush going unreciprocated.

Curbing Enthusiasm.

The pessimism of the Tories' electoral message, which is basically that the country is in trouble and painful spending cuts are necessary to fix it, is not one to fill voters with wild enthusiasm.

The recent decline in the fortunes of Barack Obama suggests that this might not be such a bad thing, the enthusiasm that Obama generated in some quarters was never likely to be fulfilled by actually governing, so the reality has disappointed many of his supporters.

Keeping expectations realistic is a much more likely route to maintaining public goodwill in the long term.

Making His Mind Up.

The Defence Secretary Bob Ainsworth's criticism of Obama's dithering over Afghanistan was probably not wise. However as I said earlier this month the leadership vacuum has put the US's allies in an impossible position. It is almost impossible for the British government or that of any other NATO member to shore up support for staying in Afghanistan if the United States seems to be less than wholly committed to the enterprise.

Either go with the McCrystal plan to increase troop numbers or get out, either decision is better than no decision.

Obama's Dithering Towards Afghan Exit.

The Afghan war is growing increasingly unpopular, it was only a few months ago that most people supported it, now 73% think we should leave. Gordon Brown has belatedly attempted to reverse that today by making the case for staying, whilst simultaneously signposting a way out*.

Obama's dithering between the two options of escalating the war or winding down the NATO presence is putting other Nato leaders in an awkward position because they need to spell out a coherent position to their electorates. However without an American decision there is only one unilateral decision they can make. They can't promise to stay the course, because if the US decides to go the other way they would have to do a u-turn. On the other hand they can withdraw regardless of what Obama decides and if there is no American decision that is what they will have to do.

* As Dilbert creator Scott Adams points out, Gordon Brown was employing "the cat is on the roof" strategy of preparing the ground for an announcement.

US Supports UN Resolution Against Religious Defamation.

Since the Mo' Toons row the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIS) has been trying to pass all sorts of resolutions at the UN calling for action to prevent the "defamation of religion". Up until now the developed liberal democracies has been almost unanimous in rejecting such a proposal see the breakdown of the January 2008 vote for example.

Not any more though, this time around the USA, which is pretty much the birthplace of religious freedom, has decided to support the latest proposal. This is something being whipped up by Obama's hysterical opponents, this is something that has left Obama's secular supporters aghast.

Peace Off.

Strange reasoning by one of the Guardian's* many enthusiasts for Latin American Marxists, not the former KGB agent Richard Gott this time, but a Chilean playwright Ariel Dorfman who argues that Obama could earn his Nobel prize if he does a number of things** including:

And Obama should rethink his approach to continental security (cancelling, for instance, Plan Colombia)

Plan Colombia is the US effort to fund train the Colombian security forces, ostensibly to fight the Drug War, but in reality to deal with all the security issues. I'm not a supporter of the War on Drugs, but I do support funding efforts to help democratic countries defeat terrorists. Anyhow since the launch of Plan Colombia (and the election of Alvaro Uribe as President) Colombia's murder rate has plummeted as peace has broken out throughout much of the country.

So in order to earn his Nobel, Obama should reverse a policy that has actually brought some degree of peace.

* I used to critique Guardian articles a lot because it is the country's most prominent left wing publication. Nowadays it is just because I read it more than other newspapers because their web presence is actually far better than any of their competitors.

** He also urges Obama to leagilise "the situation of millions of undocumented Latino workers, tearing down walls instead of erecting them." IMHO anyone using the euphemism "undocumented workers" is acknowledging that being honest and calling them "illegal immigrants" knows that their argument can't stand on its merits.

Exclusive: Barack Obama Wins FHM's World's Sexiest Woman Poll.

US President Barack Obama has been awarded the 2009 FHM Sexiest Woman In The World Award.

The Magazine said he won it for "his extraordinary grace and beauty that unites peoples".

They highlighted Mr Obama's incredibly soft skin and long legs as reasons for the award.

Mr Obama's spokesman said the president was "humbled" to have been presented with the prize by previous winner Megan Fox, who dropped the heavy prize. "That would have hurt if it had landed on your toe" remarked the President, an observation for which Mr Obama was immediately awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics.

There were a record 205 nominations for this year's prize. Angelina Jolie and Cheryl Cole had been among the favourites before Obama surprised everyone to become only the second African American after Halle Berry and the first male winner ever.

However while Obama's coronation was widely applauded many remain uncomfortable with an African American becoming Sexiest Woman in the World, with former winners Sarah Michelle Gellar and Jennifer Lopez both condemning the decision, ostensibly on the grounds that he is a man.

Michelle Obama has said the award will probably be kept next to the Turner Prize trophy her husband won for the contents of his waste paper bin.

Hail Obama; Bringer Of Peace.

Even the most enthusiastic supporters of President Obama must find the decision to give him the Nobel Peace Prize after less than a year in office with no peace or disarmament agreements achieved to be somewhat absurd. Not to mention two wars that he inherited of which he is escalating one.

I realise the Peace Prize is highly political and past winners include Yasser Arafat but even so usually the more extraordinary awards could at least be explained even if you didn't agree with the explanation.

Three of the last 8 awards have now gone to high profile US politicians from the Democratic Party, and it looks as though the Nobel committee are obsessed by partisan US politics.

Update: Via Obsidian's World, I see that the deadline for nominations for the prize was in early February when Obama had been in office for less than two weeks.

Update 2: Could Obama win the 2010 Nobel Prize for Chemistry if I get him this for Christmas:

Flow Chart Of The Day

Click here if you need to see the image separately.


Via Reason

Self Appointed Experts.

To misquote Tom Wolfe, we are always being told that the dark night of extremism is descending on the American right yet it always seems to land on the left.

The departure of Obama's truthy former "Green Jobs" advisor Van Jones was inevitable and right. As I've said before I believe that the science supports the proposition that global warming is to a large extent man made which probably puts me in a minority in my part of the political spectrum. A lot of the public is scpetical of AGW so it doesn't help that environmentalists are perfectly happy to have gibbering lunatics as their spokesmen (I call this "Michael Meacher Syndrome").

Anyway how did Van Jones come to be appointed as Obama's expert on creating "Green Jobs"? He didn't spend years familiarising himself with economic theory, he didn't run a business, he didn't study to make himself an expert on energy policy and he didn't learn engineering so that he could create energy solutions. In fact as far as I can tell he is a dilettante who bounced around as an activist for whatever far left cause was flavour of the month, before he designated himself as an expert on the environment and job creation, he was a "Civil rights activist" (race hustler), "human rights activist" (anti-police demagogue) and an advocate of "social justice" (not to be confused with normal justice).

In other words there was nothing in his background to support his claim to expertise in the Green economy, in fact in so far as he insisted that there wouldn't be any trade offs to shifting the economy in such a different direction he is almost the exact opposite of a economic expert. Yet on the basis of these non existent credentials he was recruited by the President of the USA. It is like appointing Gillian McKeith as Surgeon General. That is the scandal.

James Macintyre Has "Sources"!

A very funny post on Hot Air skewers liberal blogs that make up transparently bogus rumours and then ascribe them to "sources". The media then recycles the risible stories, because obviously it is perfectly plausible that Democrat bloggers will have inside information into Sarah Palin's sleeping arrangements.

In the UK it isn't just bloggers who have "sources", it is the MSM. Take James MacIntyre of the New Statesman, he has amazing "sources". Last year he broke the story of how after meeting David Cameron, Barack Obama had abruptly stopped speaking like Obama and started sounding like a Labour press release:

"On meeting Cameron, Obama was, according to diplomatic sources, “distinctly unimpressed”, contrary to some reports (excitedly spun by the Conservatives) which suggested that the two men had formed an instant “bond”. Instead, I have been told, Obama exclaimed of Cameron after their meeting: “What a lightweight!” He apparently also asked officials about Tory Euroscepticism.

This revelation was missed by the dozens of US journalists who had been following Obama intently for months and had cultivated relationships with the people surrounding Obama. Of late Labour have been running a smear campaign against the Tories new European allies and by an astonishing coincidence James MacIntyre otherwise silent sources inside the Obama administration have revealed that Barack Obama feels the same way!:

Most recently, Obama's aides have been alarmed by Cameron's European alliance with Michal Kaminski, a former member of the neo-Nazi National Revival of Poland (NOP) party. I have learned that a 29 July column by Timothy Garton Ash in the Guardian - echoing my own report of Jewish leaders' concerns over Kaminski in last week's NS - has been circulated inside the Obama camp. One Democratic Party source close to the administration confirmed to me: "Your assumptions about the beliefs of Obama's foreign policy team are correct - there are concerns about Cameron among top members of the team."

No doubt Barack Obama is also absolutely dismayed at the prospect of the Tory's imposing 10% cuts in public services. Still not all of Macintyre's sources are anonymous, sometimes his frankly implausible tales are attributed to his New Statesman colleagues:

The New Statesman’s senior editor Mehdi Hasan had a troubling encounter on the Tube last week. “Are you Indian?” demanded a leering, apparently well-oiled skinhead. When Hasan confirmed he was of Indian origin, there followed a sinister tirade: “Your time has come. You’ll be out when my boys get into power.” Whom did he mean, Hasan wondered, the BNP? Then came the answer: “The Tories.”

It's the ear for realistic street dialogue that makes this tale so terrifyingly convincing.

When Jayson Blair made crap up he did to save himself the effort of actual reporting, when Stephen Glass made stuff up he did so creatively to amuse his readers. These are kind of understandable reasons (in Glass's case his stories were actually very funny), making stuff up to ingratiate yourself with politicians is a dismal excuse in comparison.

A 'Beer Summit' Exclusive.

The news that has been dominating the United States and indeed the World over the last week has been Iraq, Afghanistan, Healthcare Reform, The Economy, Global Warming, some bloke getting arrested in Massachussetts.

No it really has with there currently being almost 30000 stories in the google news search.

In what will surely be seen by future historians as the 21st century equivalent of Menachim Begin and Anwar Sadat at Camp David, President Obama invited the two particpants, Professor Gates and Officer Crowley, to a beer summit. The press photographed them from afar but no one actually knows what was said. That is because I have the only transcript of the meeting:

Transcript of White House meeting on the 31st of July 2009:

Obama: Thank you for coming today Professor Gates, I have always believed that what brings us together is stronger than what pulls us apart & what we do here can heal the scars of many years of injustice. Although I wish that you had come in through the front rather than shimmied the lock at the side. Take a seat back there while I talk to Officer Crowley.

Gates: What! You want me to sit at the back whilst the white guy gets to meet the president? Yo Momma and I are going to have words. Do you know who I am?

Obama: Yes Mr Poitier, but if you forget again just read it off my autocue. [points at autocue]

Gates: This is what it's like being a persecuted Harvard professor in America! This is profiling!

Obama: Officer Crowley how nice to see you, let me tell you that I do not think that you are a racist. It's just that I have always deplored racism so much that when an incident like this occurs I like to immediately jump to conclusions based on the race of the participants.

Crowley: Can I see some Identification please sir?

Obama: What!? I'm the President you must know me.

Crowley: Okay sir, you are under arrest for Disorderly Conduct, put your hands behind your back.

Obama: Ow get off me, that hurts.

Crowley [on his radio]: I need back up at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, there is a large African American male refusing to identify himself and resisting arrest.

Gates: It has been 15 minutes and I still haven't seen any of those bears we were promised and I was looking forward to seeing a grizzly.