Obama Will Be A Two Term President

This poll of how Obama fares against against the leading Republican candidates- Romney, Palin, Huckabee & Gingrich- for the 2012 nomination is a bracing reality check to those who want to see the back of Obama. Not only does he still lead in all of the states that flipped from Bush in 04 to Obama in 08, against 3 of the 4 candidates he increases his lead- and this is in the middle of his term when little attention is being paid to his opponents and the economy remains dire.

This isn't due to Obama's brilliance, as the mid terms showed he is not wildly popular, but due to the weakness of the field. The strongest GOP candidate is Mitt Romney but his impressive track record in government and business is marred by his ridiculous flip flopping that reveal someone with few actual principles and will reduce him to a laughing stock in an election campaign. Palin has made no effort whatsoever to improve her standing with swing voters in the two years since her Vice Presidential candidacy. Gingrich's unedifying personal life and his track record of imploding will haunt his campaign. As for Huckabee, he has the right personality to be president but his actual policies are abysmal and often quite extreme.

There are other prominent Republicans who could beat Obama, but the nomination will almost certainly come down to one of those four because if someone hasn't carved themselves a niche among the GOP primary electorate by now then they probably won't be able to do it before 2012- so out go dull generic candidates like Tim Pawlenty, John Thune and the much hyped Jon Huntsman. Three candidates might have the profile to generate the enthusiasm and the money to run a successful campaign- Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush- but they have all ruled out running.

So at the moment Obama looks like a very good bet for re-election.

Sheer Genius.

Anyone who has been transfixed over uber blogger Andrew Sullivan's descent into complete insanity* over his obsession with Sarah Palin's** reproductive organs should read this brilliant piece by Iowahawk- "Dial 'M' For Maternity". It's a couple of months old but I've only just come across it:

"So, Doc, you're saying that Bristol Palin gave birth to both of those babies?"

Burns -- the Atlantic crime lab's gynecologist -- took off his stethoscope, put his face in his palms, and slowly rubbed his eyes.

"No, Loads, you fucking idiot. That's the exact opposite of what I'm saying. The human gestation cycle is 9 months, and the human female is physically incapable of completing two separate birth cycles within an 11 month period. The odds of an 18 year old female having a Down's Syndrome baby are more than 100,000 to 1, compared to 30 to 1 for a female in her 40s. It is an anatomic, physiological impossibility, never before seen in the history of human medicine."

"Ahhh... I catch your drift, sawbones," I said, looking up at the fluorescent panels of his exam room. "You're saying... you're saying that the Palins may not actually be humans! Dammit! How could have I been so blind no to see all the obvious clues? Do you suspect they may be a sleeper cell for intergalactic invaders?"

The medico looked at me with a blank stare for a few minutes. I could tell he knew something, but was too afraid to talk.

"Inspector Loads, do you use marijuana frequently?"

"Depends. Is five or six times a day frequent?"

* Actually Sullivan was a conspiracy theorist long before Palin came on the scene although he hasn't persisted with his other ideas to the same extent.

** I'm not a kneejerk Palin booster, I certainly don't think sane critics of hers like David Frum or Heather Mac Donald should be forced out of the conservative tent. However many of her critics, like Sullivan, are literally insane.

Palin 2012?

Anyone who has read this blog since last year will know that I'm not hostile to Sarah Palin, she was an effective governor and a good communicator. Much of the criticism she received was unfair and some of it went into the realm of the deranged (I'm thinking of Andrew Sullivan with his demands that her gynecological records be released in order to prove that she isn't her son's grandmother).

Having said all that the idea that she is a viable candidate for the Republican nomination for 2012 is ludicrous. For one reason above all others- she quit the role she was elected to fill, governor of Alaska, in order to go on a book tour. How could someone seriously ask to be elected president when they have a record of resigning elected offices mid term for no good reason?

I would therefore be inclined to believe her when she says that she that a presidential run is "not on her radar".

Will Get Fooled Again.

The news that the "Sarah Palin didn't know Africa was a continent" story turns out to have been a hoax, and not a particularly elaborate one at that is quite funny. The great thing about the story is that all those who repeated it as though it were plausible were trying to make a point about extreme stupidity and in their own special way they have!

Obamacons & The Obama Con.

A lot of conservatives, even real ones, have endorsed Barack Obama for the presidency. There are times when it is reasonable for a conservative to endorse the left candidate, if for example the right of centre candidate is too extreme or the left of centre candidate is a pragmatic moderate or if the incumbent needs to be punished.

There is no incumbent in this election. The Republicans have nominated a centrist with a long tradition of moderation who until he became the GOP nominee would receive lavish praise from liberals for this trait and his running mate is a governor with a track record of integrity, competent government and pragmatism. Meanwhile the Democrats have nominated the Senator with the most extreme left wing record in that chamber and a running mate who has been wrong on every major issue for three decades (experience isn't much of a virtue if you have no capacity for learning from it).

In other words there is no intellectually coherent reason for conservatives to go gaga over Obama. It can only be seen as bandwagon jumping. In some ways it is reminiscent of the conservatives who flocked ofBlair in the mid 1990s, except that for all his faults Tony Blair actually was on the right of the Labour Party, in the zone where many right of centre figures could feel more at home with his polices than the Tories. Obama isn't an American Tony Blair but an American Tony Benn.

Sure McCain hasn't run his campaign too well but that shouldn't be a factor that knowledgeable people consider too much if they are aware of the respective candidates records.

Guilt By Geography.

My pledge not to mention Sarah Palin for a week now stands in tatters with two posts in two days, however I absolutely promise not to mention American politics again for a week after this post.

You see I came across an article from the Philadelphia Inquirer that was so insane that I had to quote from it:

Intolerance thrives in Palin's Pacific Northwest

It has been years since groups such as the Montana Militia, the Posse Comitatus and the Sagebrush Rebels, and individuals such as Terry Nichols and Ted Kaczynski have made us wonder why so many "angry white men" populated our rural regions. Many of us have forgotten the threat once posed by domestic terrorists and instead have turned our attention to foreign terrorists. But we should never forget that in the late 20th century, ultra-Christian, antistatist and white-supremacist groups flourished in the states of the Pacific Northwest - called by many the "Great White Northwest" - the very region that Sarah Palin and her family call home.

......

There is no evidence that Palin was ever affiliated with white-supremacist groups during her years in Idaho or at home in Alaska. On the other hand, the beliefs of ultraconservative, evangelical churches like her family's come dangerously close to those of the Christian Identity movement of those years. Likewise, Palin's husband was a member of a political party whose members favored secession for Alaska, suggesting an affiliation with radical antistatism.

Perhaps somewhere on the record, Palin has publicly condemned the radical politics of her region. But it is hard to know where she stands on issues of race, equality and diversity. Thus it is high time to review the cultural ideals and models of the radical rurals from the Great White Northwest and find out for sure where Gov. Palin stands.

As one of the commentators on the site says, this isn't even guilt by association, it's guilt by geography. God knows what will happen when they learn that Arnold Schwarzenegger is from Austria.

Now that we're on the subject though, has the Hawaiian born Barack Obama ever publically condemned the killing of Captain Cook? There is no evidence that Obama was ever affiliated with cannibalistic tribes during hir years in Hawaii or at home in Chicago. On the other hand.....blah blah blah.....

OK no more US politics on this site until next Monday at the earliest.

Update: Wow this thread about Catherine McNicol Stock's article is scary, these people really are nuts.

Then & Now, PDS Special!

One more Sarah Palin post and after this I promise not to mention her for a week because I realise that the subject must be getting boring. Actually this is more of an Andrew Sullivan post and how even parodies of the Palin smears can't beat the real thing.

Sullivan in May:

Commentary's Abe Greenwald takes Obama to task for refusing coffee and asking for orange juice instead:

The switch from juice to coffee is a rite of adulthood. It’s not that Obama seemed to hold himself above the coffee drinkers. It’s that he seemed to lag behind them. He’s still on fruit juice while the adults are sipping bitter and bracing coffee.

Even his commenters say this is stretching it:

You guys are just running out of things to say.

And heaven help us, there are still 6 months to go before the election. And by the way, I’m older than Barack Obama, and I prefer juice to coffee. You know, some people just don’t like coffee.

Another of Abe's readers:

This is ridiculous. Choosing not to drink coffee doesn’t mean you’re childish. Here’s an alternative explanation: Obama takes care of his health. Coffee is not good for you. Orange juice is. Ergo, no coffee. One could blame Obama’s arugula-chomping and good physical condition on the same tendency. I don’t think Obama’s abstaning from coffee says anything about the man’s childishness–or lack thereof.

Look: if you're a neocon, it beats discussing the war.

Sullivan in September:

"I hate to admit it, but a skinny white chocolate mocha is my staple in the morning," - Sarah Palin, in the WSJ glossy supplement out this weekend.

Now imagine if the Democrats had a vice-presidential candidate with no record of any views on foreign policy and whose favorite morning snack was a white chocolate mocha. Do you think Rush Limbaugh would be calling it a brilliant choice? Her workout pitfall? Drum roll:

"Being pregnant every few years. If I get lazy and go weeks or months without exercising it's not because of circumstances but because I'm being less disciplined. Shame on me."

Huh?

The Jews Control Sarah Palin! (Of Course...)

Last week Andrew Sullivan was linking to baseless slurs insinuating that Sarah Palin had links to the anti semitic Pat Buchanan, this week he's claiming that she is a tool of the hook nosed yiddos*:

know she's being safely indoctrinated by Joe Lieberman and AIPAC as we speak

Perhaps in a few days he'll tie his conspiracy theories together and figure out that Bristol Palin's missing baby hasn't turned up because it had already been sacrificed by the Elders of Zion.

* I am paraphrasing him here.

Oh Dear...

The pressure is mounting on Sarah Palin, with important questions being raised, Jim Treacher who is clearly angling for a job at the New York Times covers this breaking story:

Embattled former beauty queen Sarah Palin* continued to wilt yesterday under the pressure of fair, evenhanded media questions regarding the alleged state of "Alaska." Palin has claimed to be "governor" of the legendary land mass, which, while heretofore undiscovered by explorers, was once rumored to contain vast expanses rich with oil, gold, and "eski-mos."

Palin first made the "Alaska" claim during an Aug. 29 public appearance alongside elderly, mean-looking cancer victim John McCain. McCain, a white man with whiter hair, has long publicly blocked efforts by Barack Obama, a youthful black man with a certain indefinable aura about him, to move into his new house. Palin, also white-skinned, has been linked to the McCain offensive.

Meanwhile Iowahawk covers the opinions of the man in the street:

Andrew S., Time Magazine columnist, P-Town, MA:

"As a mainstream conservative Catholic of conscience, I am shocked and disgusted by all of the suggestions of Palin family baby-snatching and witchcraft and shape-shifting that I've been reading about in my columns. How can we really know that Bristol's new baby isn't actually the result of an incestuous prenatal affair between Trig and his probably-aborted missing twin sister during Bristol's still secret pregnancy last year? How many heads does it have? Is this new baby itself pregnant, or possible wearing a tiny rubber pregnancy suit as a distraction from other Palin family pregnancy scandals?
....

Jeremiah W., minister, Chicago, IL:

"Let's remember that the Bible counsels us to 'hate the sin, love the sinner.' But let's also remember that it also tells us to hate whitey."

Double Standards?

The pregnancy of Bristol Palin has been seized upon by the usual suspects. Although in fairness Barack Obama has acted admirably and drawn a line under it. However some of the reporting of it made me think of a comparison with another politicians daughter whom the press agreed to keep out of the news after an incident. I was hesitant to raise it because I think it was right not to report that case, however there do appear to be double standards as Guido alludes to here.

BTW I'd rather commentators didn't directly refer to the case I am talking about, even if it is reasonably well known by now.

Update: Quote of the Day on this subject comes from economist Tyler Cowen:

without families like this our nation would have no chance of affording the social welfare programs proposed by the Democratic Party.

The Classy Left Part 2.

No sooner does Sarah Palin become McCain's running mate than sites like the Daily Kos start attacking her daughters, by claiming that her 5th child is actually a grandchild and her eldest daughter Bristol is the mother! There are two reasons to believe that this is preposterous, firstly if it were true then she would be crazy to put herself up for election with a skeleton like that in the closet. Scondly the chances of a teenage mother giving birth to a down syndrome baby are extremely small, around 1/20 of the chances of a 43 year old mother doing so.

The Classy Left

Seven years ago John McCain had a melanoma which was successfully treated. This means that the classy left get to use 'Cancer Ridden' as an insult.

I was reading the likes of Kos and Democratic Underground last night and several of the commentators were blaming Sarah Palin for her son's Downs Syndrome, I suspect it will only be a matter of time before that meme breaks into the mainstream too.

Palin Into Significance.

A few months ago I looked through Wikipedia at all the current incumbent republican governors and senators to see who looked like VP material, in the end the three outstanding candidates looked like Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin. John McCain thinks so too and has picked the Alaskan governor Palin as his running mate. She looks like a brilliant choice to me for the following reasons:

1) Young
2) As a governor has actually run something (Dems are saying that Alaska only has 600000 people, but that is far larger than anything Obama or Biden have run, by a couple of orders of magnitude)
3) Attractive
5) Son in Iraq
6) Never plagiarised Neil Kinnock
7) Conservative bona fides established.
8) Reformist anti corruption campaigner.
9) Took on her own state party to become governor.
10) Female, I don't care much for tokenism but it blunts Obama's novelty value.