Sunday, February 20, 2011

Gadaffi Will Survive

There is trouble in Libya but unlike his fellow North African dictators I think Gadaffi will survive. The Egyptian and Tunisian revolts succeeded because the armies did not act decisively to end them and the dictators were unwilling to order the crowds to be massacred. Ben Ali and Mubarak will both face an ignominious retirement and may face some level of prosecution but they will probably simply remain exiled in formerly friendly countries.

Gadaffi does not have this option, his past sponsorship of terrorism against the West means that once he is out of power he will be pursued relentlessly for those crimes by the United States and various European countries. That's if he isn't lynched by his own people.

This gives Gadaffi a strong incentive to go to any lengths to remain in power.

5 comments:

JuliaM said...

I don't know...

The Beeb is reporting that the protests have spread to Tripoli now. That's uncommonly fast.

sheiky said...

Further reports of the tv stations being attacked and thousands flocking to the capital Tripoli.
Like Mubarak and Ben Ali, Gaddafi will survive but not his country.

Ross said...

I hope you are both correct but I can't see any reason that the Libyan regime will hold back from slaughtering their enemies.

banned said...

His son is already talking about 'fighting to the last man and woman' which sounds defeastist to me. Reports coming in of the Libyan army splitting and bringing in 'foreign mercenaries' against his own people may be the final straw.

Ross said...

Yeah my prediction may be a bit hasty. Gadaffi is reportedly talking with Hugo Chavez about fleeing there. If he has an escape route then he might not have to fight I suppose.