Sunday, November 02, 2008

Straw Clutching.

Is it possible that McCain could still win the presidency? Almost certainly not but why not delude myself with the possibility for three more days? Political Betting has a post wondering about the reliability of American pollsters:
Given that the lat two Presidential elections have seen very close races, I would posit that ‘Independents’ includes more people that voted for Bush than for Kerry (even allowing for turnout differentials - Independents are also more likely to vote in many states). The fall in percentage of registered Republicans in the last two years, and the growth in the number of Independents smacks of what we would call ‘Shy Tory Syndrome’ - not wanting to affiliate with the party, but not necessarily reconciled to becoming Democrats, or voting for the Democratic Party. My concern would be that if the ‘Independents’ being polled and giving a slight lead to Obama are largely Dem-leaners (the eagerness of Democrats to answer questions in the same way that Labour voters are over-polled in the UK), that the whole 24% of Independents are being miscast.
It sounds plausible and I want to believe it but it is probably best not to get one's hopes up. If it is true I will be spending Wednesday engaging in unseemly gloating at various left wing sites. Although if the elections goes as expected they are more than welcome to come here to gloat.

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