Friday, February 11, 2011

Fear Of Something Worse

Whilst I am glad the Egyptian protests have succeeded in ousting President Mubarak, the concern that the alternative may be worse is worth considering. defining "worse" as being more repressive, more destabilising, more incompetent or more anti Western. Rather than look deeply at Egypt I've decided to look up what the results of previous occasions on which regimes have been toppled by mass protests (as opposed to by war) to see if there is any pattern. I am trying to be reasonably unbiased in the choice of countries (I'll be looking at the most populous nations) and objective in the judgements made:

Indonesia: Old regime overthrown in 1998. Democracy has more or less taken root and the country has not succombed to fanatacism.  Not anti-Western.

Russia: Crowds led to the defeat of the Soviet hardliners coup d'etat in 1991. Since this led to break up of USSR it has certainly not caused more instability. The successor regime is still repressive and anti Western but it isn't noticably worse than before.


Philippines: The "People Power Revolution" overthrew Marcos regime in 1986 and again, there has been no great breakthrough by the extremist opponents whose existance was supposed to justify the britality of the regime. Not ant Western.

Germany- East German protesters caused the regime to crumble in 1989. As part of a united Germany thongs have improved in almost every category.

Iran- 1979. That didn't go so well.

Thailand- 2008 & 2010- One side over threw the government by mass protests. Lack of real support meant that other side tried the same thing in 2010.

South Korea- 1960 & 1987- 1960 saw protests lead to the fall of strongman Syngman Rhee to be replaced by a similar but less brutal government. 1987 saw that regime deposed by student protests and led to genuine  and lasting democracy. 

Argentina- 2002- A democratic government overthrown and replaced after an election by another democratic government.

Romania- 1989- Fall of Ceaucescu. Clearly the current regime is an improvement.


OK so that's ten mass movements in 9 countries over the last half century who have overthrown an old regime. By my reckoning only one mostly peaceful revolution has resulted in a regime worse than what went before and most have seen considerable improvements.

8 comments:

banned said...

Nice analysis mate. The papers so love disaster that few would point out, as you have done that most peacefull revolutions do indeed bring improvements. They especially ignore that Indonesia, the worlds most populous Moslem country, is a functioning Democracy.

Both the people and Army of Egypt have been mostly peacfull in recent events, only the overthown regime has been violent and now hopefully they will pay for their crimes, through the courts.

Dunno what sort of regime can be worse than one that routinely rapes the mothers of their opponents before killing their fasmilies before their eyes.

Good speach by Obama expressing his (and by association, our) full support for the Egyptian people.

Will be interesting to see who gives Mubarak asylum, Switzerland has announced the seisure of his ill-gotten assets.

Anonymous said...

Does it really matter to us whether thay have an anti-western government or not?

What should concern us more is how many western states have anti-western governments.

Ross said...

Thanks Banned, with Mubarak I personally don't object to any dictator who has given up power being offered asylum. Because otherwise it gives them an incentive to remain in power whatever the cost.

Anon- New Labour are gone now though.

TDK said...

Russia: Crowds led to the defeat of the Soviet hardliners coup d'etat in 1991. Since this led to break up of USSR it has certainly not caused more instability. The successor regime is still repressive and anti Western but it isn't noticably worse than before.

Well compared to pre Gorbachev USSR there is little change. Perhaps the absence of Gulags is an improvement.

However the period of Gorbachev and latter saw a gradual opening up of Russia, which is now in reverse. It is definitely worse than immediately pre Putin.

Alan Peakall said...

Is it possible that you meant:

"As part of a united Germany things have improved in almost every category"

or do you need to clear your browser cache? :-)

Ross said...

TDK- I did think about Russia, but I decided that whilst the direction the current regime is going is worse than the Gorbachev administration it probably wasn't actually worse but I could be wrong.

Alan- Yes I meant "thing", although imagining some of those East German athletes in thongs makes me think that thhongs have improved as well.

Anonymous said...

However only 50% of regime changes in Muslim countries have gone well!

@"They especially ignore that Indonesia, the worlds most populous Moslem country, is a functioning Democracy."
One which has some serious problems
"THE killing of three followers of the Ahmadiyah faith by a frenzied group of Islamists this week has left Indonesia reflecting on how closely it lives up to its national credo ''unity in diversity''."
http://www.theage.com.au/world/indonesias-ahmadis-are-exiled-in-their-own-country-20110211-1aql6.html

"Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali, who has called for the group to be outlawed, said: ''The government hasn't made any decision on what to do [but] the suggestion to disband the Ahmadiyah will be a very valuable input for us.''"
Of course it is better than before - not a great achievement though.

Ross said...

Anon- Indonesia may have serious problems (although I don't think they're any worse than those of India or Thailand) but those problems existed under the old regime. Democracy isn't a magic wand but the fact that it can't solve all pre existing issues is not a reason to oppose democratic reforms.