Wednesday, August 17, 2011

On Texas & Job Creation

I linked yesterday to this summary of Texas's record on job creation and growth. With Rick Perry's entry into the contest to become President, Democrats are seeking to dispute the success of the Texan economy. The weakest effort so far must be this from The Centre For American Progress- the Soros funded liberal advocacy group:
Texas Ranks Dead Last In Total Job Creation, Accounting For Labor Force Growth
This seems unlikely, so how have they managed to work this out? The key phrase is "Accounting For Labor Force Growth", the method is astoundingly simply- subtract the total number of people entering the workforce from the total number of jobs.

The flaw in this approach should be easy enough to spot, but just to spell it out:

Imagine if there were 2 states, each with 10 million people in the workforce.

State A- Loses 500 000 jobs and 1 million people move to state B.
State B- Adds 500 000 jobs and 1 million people come in from state A.

Which state is a basket case and which one is thriving? For sane people the answer is that B is doing better than A, but not according to the Center For American Progress, because using their statistic- change in jobs minus change in labor force-  A scores +500 000 and whereas B gets -500 000.

So if Texas scores worst on job creation according to CAP which state tops the table job creators and should presumably be emulated?


The same Michigan that has had among the highest levels of unemployment in the USA for decades- but is losing population quicker than any other state in the nation.


A K Haart said...

Good post - amazing what people will do when political power is at stake. I followed the link and the comments are almost as weird as the rigged stats.

Ross said...

What's the expression- "the first thing a man will do for his beliefs is lie".

I can understand why campaigns might come up with this sort fo rubbish, but surely if they oppose Perry they have reasons for doing so, why not emphasise those rather than this sort of drivel?

Alan Peakall said...

It may have been a rhetorical question, Ross, but I think the answer is to be found in a quote from Allan Bloom's "The Closing of the American Mind": ''... as is the case with most victorious causes, good arguments became less necessary, and the original good arguments, which were difficult, were replaced by plausible simplifications - or by nothing.''.

Unbelievably, "The Center for American Progress" think they are still winning! - this offering being closer to "nothing" than to a "plausible simplication".