Sunday, February 06, 2011

Democracy & Islam.

There seems to be a widespread opinion that the only viable alternative to the Egyptian regime is the Muslim Brotherhood* and that therefore to support the protesters on the streets of Cairo is to support an Islamist theocracy. There is of course a danger that any broad based revolution will be overtaken by the most vile and fanatical elements within it- the French, Russian and Iranian revolutions all provide examples of that.

However while the danger shouldn't be overlooked the idea that either the Islamists are the inevitable victors in a democratic Muslim majority state isn't true. Over the course of almost a hundred elections in Muslim countries over the last few decades Islamic parties** have fared abysmally with only two clear wins- Algeria in 1991 and the Palestinian Authority in 2006. Both of these victories occured when the regimes had previously extinguished most other opposition groups.

A democratic Egypt is a much better bulwark against fundamentalists than a pro Western dictatorship.

* Glenn Beck is being pin pointed as being responsible for popularising that idea. Whilst Beck isn't Hitler he isn't a reliable figure for interpreting current events either.

** Of course even non Islamist parties are likely to believe things that are extreme and support brutal punishments for criminals, punishments for apostasy and hatred of Israel. However so do the tame dictators too so there is no deterioration in the situation really.

4 comments:

Umbongo said...

Off the top of my head I can't recall any "revolution" in the Moslem world ending up in a democracy. "Democracy" as now understood is, basically, a Christian European concept followed (with the very occasional exception) in practice solely in countries which are heirs to European civilisation.

Sure, "a democratic Egypt is a much better bulwark against fundamentalists than a pro Western dictatorship". Unfortunately, IMHO the democratic alternative is not and never will be on offer. In any event, why wouldn't Egypt take a decision "democratically" to opt for fundamentalism? Regrettably, democracy doesn't always pan out as one would wish. After all (at the risk of confirming Godwin's Law) Germany in 1933 got Hitler as Chancellor under the perfect democratic rules of the Weimar constitution.

Ross said...

" I can't recall any "revolution" in the Moslem world ending up in a democracy."

How about the fall of Suharto in 1998?

"In any event, why wouldn't Egypt take a decision "democratically" to opt for fundamentalism? "

They could do but the polls and electoral history of Islamist parties suggests they won't.

Umbongo said...

The EIU according to this classes Indonesia as a "flawed" democracy which ain't bad but not really a "democracy" I'd like to live under. Mind you the UK is only 19th out of 26 "full" democracies so that puts us in our place.

Polls (electoral or opinion?)? Electoral history? You're writing as if Egypt had - or is capable of having - an uncorrupt electoral system like we did more or less up to the end of the last century. I would look at Turkey as an indicator of the way the Moslem quasi-democracies are going - and it isn't in the direction of the Founding Fathers.

Ross said...

Yeah I don't expect Egypt to turn into Switzerland ever, but if it can get a moderate degree of pluralism and freedom that would be an improvement.


The polls I was referring to are things like Pew Survey's which show that support for hardline Islamists. Electoral history refers to the elections listed in the paper I link to.