Monday, December 14, 2009

Labour Within 9%. Still Doomed

So Labour have closed the polling gap to 9%.

Admittedly when a party celebrates a 9% deficit that show how badly they've been doing, but it could indicate a Labour fightback. However looking at the record of ICM polls I can't help noticing that Labour have closed the gap during the last 2 Decembers and it has opened up again by spring.

Come the election I can't really believe that the voters will decide that Labour's performance merits another 5 years in power, so I'm predicting that this will be another false dawn although if it encourages an earlier election then it is a good thing.


JuliaM said...

Who the hell thinks that the 'season of goodwill' applies to the worst political party in the UK? And more to the point, why..?

Quiet_Man said...

9% merely means a Tory majority of about 40, rather than say of 100.

Ross said...

" the worst political party in the UK? "

I don't know about that- I'd place them ahead of the Cornish nationalists.

Quiet Man- eah but they are now in the territory where just a small boost would take us into hung parliament territory.

Letters From A Tory said...

The publicity around the PBR will have helped Labour, and I'm sure Zac Goldsmith being in the headlines has sparked a few Labour core voters into action.

Ross said...

I thought the polling suggested that voters were unimpressed with the PBR though.

James Higham said...

Cameron should be way ahead and the reason he is not is a disgrace.

Mark said...

'Cameron should be way ahead and the reason he is not is a disgrace.'

Given the quality of some of his front benchers I doubt if Cameron is right to assume he should be 'way ahead'. Nulab is in a terrible state, with its 'internal contradictions' now coming home to roost. However in their place the Cameroons give us-

1. George Osborne, who looks & sounds like a spivvy Mayfair estate agent, and seemingly has an economic policy to match
2. Theresa May, who is just plain thick
3. Michael Gove; this century's version of Dave Willetts. He has several bright ideas on Education (as Willetts did on Health)but has the ineradicable air of the school swot about him- and on foreign policy is a raging neo-Blairite NeoCon.
If the Tories assume they are home 'n' dry, a nasty shock could await them.