Thursday, April 29, 2010

Election Prediction

I'm going to make my official election prediction now so people can laugh at how wrong I am.

I suspect that the Labour & Conservative vote is being accurately reflected in the polls however given the relative uncertainty of Lib Dem supporters to vote I believe that their support will be lower than anticipated.

So I am predicting a wafer thin Tory majority rather than a hung parliament and Lib Dem gains to be under 30 seats, with Labour getting around the same as the Lib Dems in the popular vote but still having around 200 seats.


Conservatives*: 35%, 325 seats
Labour: 28%, 195 seats.
Liberal Democrats: 28%, 90 seats

* Includes Ulster Unionists.


Matthew said...

Well I think the Tories will get a majority of about 30, so I'll go for 355, 170, 90. I have no idea if that is probable (you have 40 others - is that right?)

Ross said...

I think that it would be around 30 others.